FormosanMacaque | 1 points | Apr 28 2022 14:52:39

I think Stephen Kotkin put it the best with his two lines "Authoritarian regimes have a expiration date", and "you cannot be half communist". For the first, a state that has no internal drive to innovate will eventually kill itself economically, either by drawing the response from the rest of the world, or simply being unable to compete. The second line is about coercion and liberalization, as soon as a communist government looses the ability to kill, as seen in the Soviet collapse, minor resistance starts to brew and the dominos do not stop falling. As soon as you liberalize, the people will ask for alternative options. Both pressures are seen in China and make it a ticking time bomb: a repressive state that requires every larger amounts of resources spent on keeping people in line, while its aggressiveness wastes away its economic prospects. (P.S just to not confuse people China's case is more about it being a Leninist party rather than how economically 'communist' they are.) Most intellectuals now see the decline of China as inevitable, and with recent events such as all four tier I cities going into lockdown, it is speculated that this is to mask the hard truth of economic decline.

So I will list a number of possible outcomes of post-CCP China provided by scholars, and I want to hear from you guys what China do you think is in-stock for us.

A Taiwanese Model: Sudden and almost complete democratization, West Taiwan suddenly sees the impossibility of their task ahead and decides to liberalize. The CCP might not even intended for full liberalization, but once it starts it could just be unstoppable. Those in the state machine and the Chinese people band together to redefine what China means and embraces the world while unlocking the potential of its citizens by honoring the republic. I've met some Chinese communists that definitely want this route, and some Taiwanese scholars see this as possible.

A Confederate Model: Currently China is a Han dominated empire, but some day the costs of maintaining the periphery and the difference between its costal elites/inland provinces could prove too much to handle. Chinese would maintain a coherent national identity but individual states are left to decide its own governments and own paths of development. Proponents of this model generally stress how strong the Chinese identity is to prevent further breakup, and also the radically different economic prospects of different provinces.

A Multi-State Model: Chinese decline sees external influence overtake CCP influence. The coastal elites are absorbed into the globalist system, Tibet/Xinjiang/Manchuria are broken off into their own states or become parts of the other nations. CCP might still control some parts of northern China, but the vast majority of China becomes its own nations, with different national identities. This is Peter Zeihan's scenario, and as he points out this is actually the norm in Chinese history.

North Korean Model: Okay this is a bit of catch, but this scenario sees the CCP still in charge, but mostly cut off from the rest of the World, and deeply impoverished. Chinese population will collapse with mass famine, its markets economy replaced by rationing, but the CCP will be rock solid after purging alternate sources of power(capitalists/western sympathizers) and constantly use national fervor to rule. I put it here despite my post title because frankly I see this as the CCP's best out, and even Kotkin has mentioned that this in the near-term is probably most likely, as the Chinese have an unending hatred for the Japanese, and a fate accompli capturing of the Seunkaku or Kinmen Islands could spur this event.