Leather-Historian-27 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:28:56

分析一下京子最新言论

https://i.redd.it/zvfnj287tsl81.jpg

[-] Leather-Historian-27 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:32:45

有两种可能。

1.普京已经有十足的把握拿下乌克兰,如果这种推测成立的话很可能还有大招没用,或是得到了黄俄的输血

2.普京已经把自己的政治生涯和俄罗斯的国运全部压在乌克兰上,最后一搏,不成功便成仁

[-] dkmfTheMaster | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:35:56

普京很大可能是后者,虚张声势罢了

[-] lynxtrainer | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:37:15

再打下去普京很可能赢,乌克兰已经不太撑得住了

[-] dkmfTheMaster | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:39:36

还行,我看还能顶

[-] lynxtrainer | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:40:59

看inty之类的推号永远感觉能顶,直到顶不住。还是得看俄军的进度,其实占领区域是一直在扩大的。

[-] dkmfTheMaster | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:51:06

俄军这个所谓的"占领"是要打引号的

[-] Hopeful_Tale_1934 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 18:56:59

看似占领区域在扩大但是其实不是连续的战线,而只是沿着公路前进,现在化冻期广大的平原都没法走,突袭公路上的俄军基本就是打固定靶

[-] Hongkongjai | 1 points | Mar 07 2022 00:34:08

德軍入侵蘇俄的時候也是越打越差的。戰爭不僅是看進度,也得看經濟,國家的戰爭潛力和地理因素。人力越打越少,經濟越打越差,物流運輸越打越困難,內部原和越打越亂,中國輸的血都補不了經濟制裁和戰爭流失的資源,而烏克蘭背後有整個北約的枱面技術,物資和經濟支援。事實上,在士氣穩定的前提下,烏克蘭失的地越多,佔的優勢越大。

[-] Acrobatic_Fold_8310 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:42:08

没看出来,这还是大多数装备援助没到的情况下

[-] lynxtrainer | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:43:41

你得看俄军占领的区域,不能只看数字上乌克兰打掉几架飞机几辆坦克。现在乌克兰没有空中优势很难打反击,打不了反击硬拖乌克兰拖不过俄罗斯。

[-] Deep_Boysenberry3630 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:46:58

凍土快解凍,經濟快崩潰,留給老毛子的時間不多了

[-] SubstantialBoat4808 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:49:32

這樣也沒問題 現在坃不是Hoi 俄羅斯軍隊只能控制公路沿線真正的佔領區域其實就只有那條路

[-] lynxtrainer | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:50:35

俄军现在控制了不少城市了。乌克兰的军事力量基本都在城市里打防守,这个局势很不好。

[-] SubstantialBoat4808 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:53:09

大城市也就是赫爾松

[-] lynxtrainer | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:54:30

进度慢也是进度啊,打反击才有生路

[-] Deep_Boysenberry3630 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:58:15

沒有制空權重武器打反擊是不太可能的

[-] SubstantialBoat4808 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:58:19

烏的計劃本來就是能拖就拖 没想過要解放甚麼莫斯科 而且東部和基輔方向也在反政

[-] lynxtrainer | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:58:59

不是解放莫斯科,你得把俄军赶出去,不能形成包围圈

[-] Deep_Boysenberry3630 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 18:11:29

俄軍本來就是砲兵裝甲部隊為主,你跟它來個大會戰它才求之不得呢。烏軍應該有大部分國境被佔,敵後打游擊的準備了。那才是俄軍的惡夢。你看現在赫爾松不也有人上街。俄軍主力北上以後,有槍的當地居民不把他們後面的補給掐了才怪

[-] Deep_Boysenberry3630 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:52:29

這樣的話對游擊隊而言他們會走哪條路太明顯了,他們越深入補給越危險

[-] Acrobatic_Fold_8310 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:56:48

并不是,根据ISW跟militaryland,以及俄军实际推进图,俄罗斯的胜利还需要很长的路要走。致命的后勤问题,以及未来到达的对乌军援也要考虑到。

你现在看到的是俄军已经动用了部署的几乎100%力量的结果。

俄军根本没能力封锁波乌边境,没有空中优势也依旧可以反击。

普京现在做的就是尽一切努力拿战略点逼泽子谈判,或者在未来的谈判中获得优势。

最重要的一点:乌克兰要的不是把俄军推回莫斯科,守住就是胜利。

[-] lynxtrainer | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:58:26

希望如此吧

[-] Acrobatic_Fold_8310 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 18:00:16

记住这一点就行了,最重要的一点:乌克兰要的不是把俄军推回莫斯科,守住就是胜利。俄军会缓慢的获得一些想要的东西,但这个代价是他无法想象的。

不管强国人再怎么高潮,这次打完俄爹也要完蛋了,再也无法威胁北约半步

[-] lynxtrainer | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 18:01:34

从世界格局的角度来说我毫不怀疑京子输麻了,我是觉得靠硬拖的战术乌克兰人民太惨了。

[-] Acrobatic_Fold_8310 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 18:07:08

不会,反而西方(主要是美国)扮演的是一个负责任守规矩的形象。而且尽可能在帮助乌克兰,帮助一个不是自己盟友,不属于北约的可怜国家

想想当年俄罗斯跟强国骗乌克兰弃核,现在又来入侵他。做错的肯定是俄罗斯而不是西方任何一个国家

[-] lynxtrainer | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 18:08:46

当然是俄罗斯的错,我是说乌克兰人民太惨了。

[-] Hongkongjai | 1 points | Mar 07 2022 00:39:31

單單就格局而言,捱過了這仗,加入歐盟,大概會有全面性的改革,人力物資資金容易以重建之名大規模投入烏克蘭,烏克蘭在Crimea 和烏東的地帶如果能拿回,當中的是天然氣資源能打擊俄國經濟的程度,建國至今的貪腐問題也可能在歐盟的幫助下被控制。對烏克蘭國民而言是一場豪賭。

[-] Successful-Ad4894 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 21:56:13

同感,而且兵败如山倒,一旦崩溃一个点,后面马上都崩溃了。

[-] lynxtrainer | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 21:58:58

拖下去对乌克兰不利。虽然普京无法赢得战争,但他至少可以赢得战斗

[-] Successful-Ad4894 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 22:06:20

很多人还说有欧洲源源不断的支援。 实际上欧洲都是进口大国,欧洲自己也会扛不住。

[-] lynxtrainer | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 22:09:34

乌克兰对欧洲政客来说实在是太不重要,比起天然气和小麦来说乌克兰完全可以不管。毕竟乌克兰本身也不是一个模范国家

[-] Deep_Boysenberry3630 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:37:43

國運已經輸得一塌糊塗,拿下十個烏克蘭都彌補不了

[-] MohaParty | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:36:02

想看俄罗斯再次分裂

[-] FrostingCreative1328 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:46:24

普京能活到今年年底吗?

[-] christopher_belter | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:46:24

乌克兰割地求和肯定跑不了。最好结果是成芬兰那样,输了战争也要给俄狗往死里打,再想办法进欧盟北约

[-] dkmfTheMaster | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:50:47

在戰爭與屈辱面前,你選擇了屈辱!可是,屈辱過後,你仍得面對戰爭!

—— 丘吉尔

[-] Deep_Boysenberry3630 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 17:56:24

大概是克里米亞跟東部兩省歸俄,烏克蘭進北約(畢竟跟俄國有領土爭議北約不可能收),但如果是這樣俄國還是輸了,因為那三地方戰前就是俄控的

[-] Weimar19 | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 20:16:27

最糟糕结果但愿打成阿富汗,给俄罗斯联邦养老金也爆出来,给瓶子的外汇也霍霍完。

最后政治解决,灰溜溜撤军,俄军队被爆得差不多,瓶子外汇打到空,留下两个失败的独裁者

[-] WilsonEdchi | 1 points | Mar 06 2022 18:14:48

怎麼還有川粉造謠?共和黨這次完全暴露,尤其是川普派系,舔鵝舔出十八番了。一堆還在造謠疫苗有毒,帶個口罩還以為是活在北韓。已經不知道是什麼貴物了。簡直就是翻版芝麻pig。

[-] Hongkongjai | 1 points | Mar 07 2022 00:42:02

&rt; Republicans are condemning Putin for the invasion of Ukraine — and criticizing Biden

&rt; An array of Republicans, including McConnell, also criticized the sanctions Biden has announced in response to Russia's aggression as too little, too late.

&rt; There had been bipartisan energy in Congress for a package billed as the "mother of all sanctions." While talks over that bill fell apart six days ago, that energy remains.

https://www.npr.org/2022/02/24/1082954761/republicans-are-condemning-putin-for-the-invasion-of-ukraine-and-criticizing-bid

&rt; The speakers who were the most direct in their condemnations of Russia, in fact, were ones who were commentators or foreign policy experts - like former National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien, radio show host Mark Levin and ex-White House adviser Sebastian Gorka - not current or aspiring politicians.

&rt; "We don't pretend when freedom loving people are being crushed and slaughtered by an enemy of the United States, that it doesn't matter. It matters," Levin said. "That doesn't mean we send American troops willy-nilly into these areas, but it also doesn't mean you sit on your hands and pretend nothing's going on."

https://www.google.com.hk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60559403.amp

&rt; As for Trump, the former president called Putin “smart” during his own CPAC speech this past weekend, days after describing the Russian leader as “savvy.” Trump also called the invasion of Ukraine “an outrage and an atrocity,” but his basic argument on stage in Florida on Saturday was his motto: “I alone can fix it.”

&rt; “I stand as the only president of the 21st century on whose watch Russia did not invade another country,” Trump said at CPAC.

&rt; The tone of Camp One is more straightforwardly anti-Putin, without taking a dig at the current president. When McConnell got pressed on Trump’s warm words for Putin last week, he reverted to his longstanding position: “Look, I just told you how I feel about the Russians. Vladimir Putin is a bad guy.”

&rt; No less an anti-Biden hawk than House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, notably, did not mention the president by name in his own initial response to the Russian invasion. “Putin must be held accountable for his actions,” McCarthy said.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2022/02/28/how-ukraine-split-the-gop-00012394

&rt; Ukraine invasion: US Republican senator Lindsey Graham calls on Russians to assassinate Vladimir Putin

https://www.google.com.hk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/ukraine-invasion-us-republican-senator-lindsey-graham-calls-on-russians-to-assassinate-vladimir-putin-12557148

&rt; WASHINGTON, March 1 (Reuters) - U.S. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said on Tuesday that Republicans largely support President Joe Biden's actions toward Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, but that lawmakers have hit a snag in efforts to agree on aid to Kyiv.

&rt; "I think there's broad support for the president in what he's doing now. Our biggest complaint is, what took him so long?" McConnell told a press conference after the Biden administration ratcheted up sanctions against Russia and its central bank.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/top-us-senate-republican-signals-support-biden-ukraine-2022-03-01/