美國當然有能力保衛台灣–美國務院首席中國策略顧問余茂春（下集）

henanpunk | 1 points | Jul 20 2021 04:57:29

美國當然有能力保衛台灣–美國務院首席中國策略顧問余茂春（下集）｜蕭茗看世界

美國當然有能力保衛台灣–美國務院首席中國策略顧問余茂春（下集）｜蕭茗看世界
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrubqKuygII

so it boils down to two things can america defend taiwan and will 所以歸結為兩件事，美國可以保衛台灣，美國是否會

america defend taiwan in taiwan straight people always say 在台灣直接保衛台灣人們總是說

there is strategic ambiguity i don't think so i think we have 存在戰略模糊我不這麼認為，所以我認為我們有

strategic clarity no i think that we have 戰略清晰不我認為我們有

strategic clarity we have tactical ambiguity does america have the ability 戰略清晰我們有戰術模糊美國是否有能力

to protect everyone militarily because china's 在軍事上保護每個人，因為中國的

military buildup has been very scary in recent years okay so when it comes to 軍事集結近年來非常可怕，所以說到

capabilities i don't elaborate here on in the public 能力，我不會在公開

show but the the answer is yes what's your assessment of the security 節目中詳細說明，但答案是肯定的，您對安全的評估是什麼？

situation in the taiwan street well the taiwan's security situation has 台灣街的情況好台灣的安全局勢

always been the same there's the only articulation of 一直都是一樣的

that kind of a confrontational nature uh china never wants to give up it's a 這種對抗性質的唯一表達呃中國永遠不想放棄這

threat of use of force the united states has never given up its 是使用武力的威脅美國從未放棄其

commitment to the defense of taiwan right so taiwanese 承諾捍衛台灣的權利，所以台灣

have never given up its strong desire to maintain status quo 人從未放棄維持現狀

to keep taiwan as it is uh to to keep status quo is not the same as as 以保持台灣的強烈願望，因為它是uh to k eep 現狀和台獨不一樣

taiwanese independence nobody in taiwan is talking about 台灣沒有人在談論

taiwanese independence everybody's talking about 台獨每個人都在談論

keep type 1 as it is so that is basically 保持 1 類原樣所以這基本上

what we've been doing now the reason why taiwan is 就是我們現在一直在做的事情台灣

deserving of the world's help is because taiwan represented really in 值得世界幫助的原因是因為在我看來台灣確實代表

my view the a possible

future model for entire china it is a deeply traditional society 了整個中國未來可能的模式它是一個傳統的社會

it is the most vibrant democracy in the whole region 它是整個地區最有活力的民主

it has completed something that a very few 它完成了一些很少有

nations have completed with such ease that is transition from 國家如此輕鬆地完成

a dictatorship to democracy so i think if our taiwanese i would be 的事情民主專政所以我想如果我們的台灣人我真的會為

really proud of what taiwan has accomplished 台灣所取得的成就感到自豪

it's a very diverse society he has a completely 這是一個非常多元化的社會他有一個正常民主的完全

healthy functioning mechanism of a normal 健康的運作機制

democracy in many ways it has something that's much more 在許多方面它有

sort of a common sensical approach to some of the 一些更常見的理性方法一些

issues for example election system um their uh 問題，例如選舉制度嗯他們的呃

their um uh public health system so it's pretty amazing it's inspirational people 他們的呃公共衛生系統所以這非常了不起它

for for all chinese speaking people including people in in mainland china 是所有講中文的人，包括中國大陸人的勵志人，

so that's why taiwan is is a very important 所以這就是為什麼台灣是一個非常重要的人，

uh from the inspirational from aspirational point of view 從勵志的角度來看，

secondly taiwan has done so much good to the world 其次台灣為世界做了很多好事，

it has been a responsible member of the global trading system 它一直是負責任的一員全球貿易體系

it has the one of the most advanced technological sectors in the world 它擁有世界上最先進的技術部門之一

it holds some of the key manufacturing capabilities 它擁有世界半導體等關鍵行業的一些關鍵製造能力

in key industries in the world semiconductor for example

so and taiwan's intelligentia has been very 台灣的知識分子一直非常

vibrant so taiwan is no longer an island democracy taiwan is a 活躍所以台灣不再是一個島嶼民主國家台灣是國際社會的

active member of the global community as such the world should give taiwan 積極成員，因此世界應該給台灣

much more space to operate internationally china wants 更多的國際運作空間中國

to minimize taiwan's space in the international 希望最小化台灣在國際

arena that's going to backfire because just to 舞台上的空間，這會適得其反，因為只是為了

show how narrow-minded how backward the chinese 表明中國的

collective leadership mindset is and china should learn from taiwan 集體領導是多麼狹隘多麼落後心態是，中國應該向台灣學習，

rather than trying to stifle it to threaten it so i i feel very 而不是試圖與台灣學習如果它威脅到它，所以我

optimistic about future of taiwan because after all taiwan 對台灣的未來感到非常樂觀，因為畢竟台灣

is a a uh it really is something that a lot of 是aa 呃這確實是

people in mainland china aspire to be in um 中國大陸很多人渴望進入的東西

and i think in the um for taiwan's leaders as well um i think you know i ，我認為台灣的領導人也嗯嗯我想你知道我

hope they don't think of themselves as a 希望他們不要認為自己是一個

small tiny country of small insignificance 微不足道的小國

and they should be very proud of themselves and they should think big ，他們應該為自己感到非常自豪，他們應該考慮

and they should always think big you are a military historian so the fact 大，他們應該始終認為你是一名軍事歷史學家，所以

that you are not overly concerned about the safety and security 事實上你不太擔心台灣街的安全和治安

of the taiwan street is comforting to a lot of people well 讓很多人感到欣慰

i'm concerned but also i also understand the security 我很擔心，但我也理解中國正確運作的安全

environment in which china operates right is 環境是

china has advantages but it's not entirely in its own favor 中國有優勢，但並不完全對自己有利

because there's a lot of things that chinese military action 因為中國的軍事行動有很多事情

will be impeded u.s commitment to taiwan's defense 會阻礙我們對台灣國防

and china's overall security environment around periphery 和中國周邊地區整體安全環境的承諾，

uh and that's all bad so china right now 嗯，這都是不好的中國現在

it's hard for them to afford major military action without 很難在不引起許多國家強烈反對的情況下承擔重大軍事行動，

evoking major backlash among many nations uh um along its borders 嗯嗯，

right so and i think um china will be further isolated 所以我認為中國將進一步與

from international community and to to see china stifle hong kong democracy 國際社會隔絕，看到中國扼殺香港民主

hong kong freedom hong kong's autonomy um 香港自由香港的自治嗯

and then the world has reacted violently chinese are further isolated and you 然後世界反應激烈中國人被進一步孤立你

have major officials in hong kong government 有香港政府的主要官員

sanctioned they couldn't even get their credit card 制裁他們甚至不能讓他們的信用卡

functioning so that's a degree to which the whole world is revolt 運作所以這是一個程度，全世界都

repulsed by china's action in hong kong taiwan is slightly 被中國的反抗擊退在香港台灣的行動略有

different taiwan is much stronger taiwan is much 不同台灣要強大得多台灣

more in uh autonomous thailand has its own functioning mechanism of the 更在呃自治泰國有自己的政府運作機制

government so taiwan has international 所以台灣有

alliance of different kinds and i think you know 不同類型的國際聯盟，我想你知道

most importantly taiwan has the moral support 最重要的是台灣有道義上的支持

a majority of the countries in the world yeah even though they may not have a 世界上的國家是的，即使他們可能沒有

diplomatic support but the moral support is tremendous that's definitely true um 外交支持但是道義上的支持是巨大的，這絕對是真的，嗯，

i think a lot of people think taiwan's safety depends on the 我想很多人認為台灣的安全取決於

um how do you say a a equation you know it depends on how 嗯，你怎麼說 aa 等式你知道這取決於

china weighs you know which side the pros and cons of 中國的權重你知道

invading type one if the pros overwhelms 入侵第一型的利弊如果專業人士壓倒

the kongs they might as well do it so do you think right now 了香港人，他們也可能會這樣做，所以你現在

that it's not to that point yet well i think the key to major 認為還沒有到那個程度嗎？我認為主要

international hot spots uh uh and actually the key to 國際熱點的關鍵呃呃實際上是

solving all those security crisis in major international hotspots is 解決主要國際上所有這些安全危機的關鍵熱點

actually the rural american military and we are the peacekeeper 實際上是美國農村的軍隊，我們是維

and we uh through our strong military presence in asia pacific we 和者，我們呃通過我們在亞太地區的強大軍事存在，我們

prevented major wars from happening in some of the very confrontational 阻止了在一些非常對抗的

security environments particularly on taiwan straight right so 安全環境中發生重大戰爭，特別是在台灣的右邊，所以

i think since the korean war it is americans security 我認為自從朝鮮戰爭以來是美國

commitment to taiwan's defense that prevented 對台灣防禦的安全承諾阻止

the chinese communist party from taking risky actions and not preserved 了中國共產黨採取冒險行動而不是維護

peace and stability along thailand strait for decades 和平嗎？幾十年來泰國海峽沿岸的穩定，

so we have a less clarified less transparent defense commitment to 所以我們對台灣的防衛承諾不太明確，不太透明

taiwan in other words we don't no longer have a ，換句話說，我們不再有

mutual defense arrangement but we still have a very solid 共同防禦安排，但我們仍然

commitment to taiwan's self-defense and according to the 1979 tyranny 對台灣的自衛有非常堅定的承諾，根據 1979 年的暴政

relations act so americans military presence 關係法案，因此

in pacific must be preserved and we have made that very clear we have 必須保留美國在太平洋的軍事存在，我們已經明確表示，我們

strong military presence in japan in south korea in guan and 在日本在韓國的關島

in south china sea and taiwan is part of that all so-called first island chance 和南海擁有強大的軍事存在，台灣是所有所謂第一島機會的一部分

so it's very important for america to keep that way and to preserve peace 所以對美國來說保持這種方式並維護和平非常重要

we don't want anybody's territory and japanese want us to be there defend 我們不希望任何人的領土和日本人希望我們在那裡保衛

itself against his vital enemies in the region so and i think you know um 自己在該地區對抗他的重要敵人所以我想你知道嗯

we should keep that and i think you know the american military presence in that 我們應該保持這一點我認為你知道美國在該

area is probably the most key factor to 地區的軍事存在可能是

preserving peace and stability and i think you know 維護和平與穩定的最關鍵因素，我認為你認識

anybody who is willing to take admitted risk 任何願意採取行動的人承認風險

must consider that and we have made that very clear 必須考慮到這一點，我們已經非常清楚地表明，

we'll make it very clear um in taiwan straight 我們會非常清楚，嗯，在台灣，直

people always say there's strategic ambiguity right 人總是說存在戰略模糊性，

i don't think so i think we have strategic 我不這麼認為，所以我認為我們現在有了戰略

clarity now i think that we have strategic clarity we have tactical 清晰度，我認為我們有了戰略清晰度我們在戰術上有

ambiguity so that's very important you know we never told the chinese that 歧義所以這很重要你知道我們從來沒有告訴中國人

we're not going to abandon taiwan if we do some abcd 如果我們做一些abcd

we always say peace and stability along thailand strait is 我們不會放棄台灣我們總是說泰國海峽沿岸的和平與穩定是

key to american interest 美國利益的關鍵

we don't tell the chinese how many carriers we'll send over there 我們不告訴中國人我們將派多少航母去那裡

and that's ambiguous because that's tactical right but strategically ，這是模棱兩可的，因為這在戰術上是正確的，但從

strategically speaking we i think it will be very clear 戰略上講，我認為中國人會很

to the chinese so and that's a very important point to keep in mind 清楚，所以這是一個非常重要的點，要記住，

okay so it boils down to two things can america defend taiwan and will 好吧，歸結為兩件事美國能保衛台灣嗎，

america define taiwan the answer to those two questions are i 美國會定義台灣

think i think you know american people are 嗎？這兩個問題的答案是我想我想你知道美國人民

more and more aware how taiwan is related to the 越來越了解台灣是如何關聯的對

united states taiwan is not the original 美國來說，台灣不是最初的

issue just the same way as west berlin was not just recent issue in 1948 1949 問題，就像西柏林不僅僅是 1948 年的最近問題一樣，1949 年

when the burning crisis occurred to preserve 發生了激烈的危機以保護

west berlin and its freedom is not just a american problem it's global problem 西柏林，它的自由不僅是美國的問題，而且是全球問題

right so that's why we led the world to preserve west berlin and its freedom ，這就是為什麼我們帶領世界維護西柏林及其自由

for decades until the evil empire is gone 幾十年，直到邪惡的帝國消失，

so taiwan is the same thing um so we have that uh 所以台灣是一樣的，嗯，所以我們認為，

and taiwan is actually uh very important because taiwan is at the forefront of 嗯，台灣實際上非常重要，因為台灣處於

confronting chinese communism and it has so many resources 對抗中國共產主義的最前沿，它我們美國人有很多資源

we americans could use right to benefit our own system 可以用來使我們自己的系統受益

for example taiwanese are very sophisticated in preventing uh ，例如台灣人在防止呃

election fraud and election interference from foreign countries 選舉欺詐和來自外國的選舉干預

they have a very sophisticated cyber defense to preserve its integrity of 方面非常老練，他們有非常複雜的網絡防禦來保持選舉系統的完整性，

election systems we in america also have the same problem 我們在美國也有同樣的問題

and each reaction in recent memories we have 和最近記憶中的每個反應我們

had a problem foreign sovereign government interfered with american 遇到了外國主權政府乾預的問題美國的

electoral processes and that's something we can 選舉過程，這是

learn from taiwanese we have so and also taiwanese are very 我們可以從台灣人身上學到的東西，台灣人

very successful in economics and trade and they make an incredible contribution 在經濟和貿易方面非常成功，他們為全球財富做出了令人難以置信的貢獻

to global wealth we ，我們

america our major industries were gradually more and more independent 美國，我們的主要產業逐漸越來越獨立地

dependent on the taiwanese suppliers right 依賴台灣人例如，供應商正確的

semiconductor for example right so that's why 半導體，所以這就是為什麼

taiwan's economy and american economy were 台灣經濟和美國經濟

more and more integrated and later on the free exchange of intellectual 越來越融合，後來

talents in taiwan and the united states i mean it's very very robust and i think 台灣和美國的智力人才自由交流，我的意思是它非常非常強大，我想

you know in other words taiwanese and americans 你知道換句話說台灣和美國美國人，

we have so much more in common to share yeah i was wondering if that's 我們有很多共同點可以分享是的，我想知道這是否是

um the trump administration's strategy to 特朗普政府保護台灣的戰略，

protect taiwan the most powerful way just to let taiwan has 這是讓台灣

so much interest to other countries you have 對其他國家如此感興趣的最有力方式，你

investment the eu have investment in taiwan 有投資歐盟在台灣

america has investment in taiwan you have so much invested 美國有投資投資台灣你對台灣有這麼多的投資

interest in taiwan so you cannot abandon taiwan 興趣所以你不能放棄台灣

well taiwan is actually a um yes taiwan is very important taiwan is 好吧台灣實際上是一個嗯是的台灣非常重要台灣是

provides a very healthy and uh meritorious alternative to china 提供一個非常健康和有功的替代中國

when china banned foreign journalists they normally in the old time they went 當中國禁止外國記者他們通常在過去他們

to hong kong hong kong is no longer free no one got 去香港的時候香港不再自由沒有人獲得

autonomous so now drove of those foreign terrorists kicked 自主權，所以現在

off by the chinese regime went to taiwan and that's a good thing 被中國政權驅逐的外國恐怖分子被驅趕到台灣，這是一件好事，

time provides a very good alternative to the chinese 時間為中國治理模式提供了一個很好的替代方案，

model of governance you know one of the biggest lessons the world has 你知道這是世界在中國學到的最大

learned in the last several decades is our overdependence on chinese 教訓之一過去幾十年

in our supply chains and i think in many many countries ，我們的供應鏈過度依賴中國，我認為現在許多國家

right now are realizing that's a mistake so they're trying to diversify 都意識到這是一個錯誤，因此他們正努力使

their supply chain so they'll try to lessen their dependence on 供應鏈多樣化，因此他們會盡量減少對中國的依賴。

china taiwan is a perfect alternative to that you can see 台灣是一個完美的替代方案，你可以看到

international capitals gradually move away out of china they have several 國際首都逐漸離開中國，他們有幾個

places to go right india vietnam and obviously taiwan particularly some of 地方可以去印度越南和顯然是台灣，特別是一些

the industries that rely on say chinese 依賴中國語言能力的行業，

language capabilities um and and 嗯，和

chinese culture affiliation and then they are they're all moved to taiwan 中國文化的聯繫，然後他們都搬到了台灣，

i know there are many chinese language learning programs among many 我知道在美國的許多大學裡有很多中文學習項目，

universities in college in the united states

they are ending their operations in china 他們正在結束他們在中國

where they go they go to taiwan so that's the 的行動他們去台灣所以這是

very uh natural um solution to sovereign overdependency on 非常嗯自然的解決方案對中國的主權過度依賴

china right right another big question is 右另一個大問題

does america have the ability to protect taiwan militarily 是美國是否有能力在軍事上保護台灣

because china's military buildup has been very 因為中國的軍事集結一直非常

scary in recent years okay so when it comes to capabilities 可怕最近幾年還好，所以說到能力，

i don't elaborate here on in the public show but the 我沒有在公開節目中詳細說明，

the answer is yes okay that's that's good enough america is the 但答案是肯定的，這已經足夠了美國是世界上

oldest democracy in the world we started somewhere around 最古老的民主國家我們大約在

250 years ago our system to a large degree is based 250 年前開始了我們的系統很大程度上是

upon 18th century enlightenment understanding 基於 18 世紀

of government philosophy some of them are very very 對政府哲學的啟蒙理解，其中一些非常非常

basic and which has become universal principles number one is basically 基本並且已經成為普遍原則第一是基本上

limited government government cannot be strong unlike the chinese marxist lenin 有限的政府政府不能像中國馬克思列寧那樣強大

is the party state where the state is absolutely 是黨國，國家絕對

powerful and people are powerless second 強大而人民無能為力第二個

principle that helped build the american system 原則幫助建立了美國製度

was the issue the idea of a sovereign a popular sovereignty 是問題主權的想法人民

in other words it's the people who decide what form 主權換句話說，是人民決定

how the government operates so it deals with the consent 政府如何運作的形式，因此它處理

of the government so those major principles are all there but 政府的同意，因此這些主要原則都存在，但

specific mechanism of how to produce a leader 具體機制如何產生領導者

right how to run elections uh were still based 如何正確選舉呃仍然

upon old technology based upon our environment that was like 250 years 基於舊技術基於我們的環境就像 250 年前

ago taiwanese democracy has done more than

anybody i know that updated those

election mechanisms um and make it really really good and to

more effectively reflect those major principles laid

out by the founding fathers of america and which has become global for example 一樣由美國的開國元勳們創立並已成為全球例如 le

um the uh the issue of um the uh

of limited government right the issue of popular sovereignty 有限政府權利問題人民主權問題

uh and in taiwan election in the united states i mean the election uh 和在美國的台灣選舉中我的意思是選舉

always takes place on tuesdays in the 18th century makes perfect sense 總是在 18 世紀的星期二舉行

because of the communication means and also the the limitation to people's 因為通訊手段和限制人們

you know participation in the election so tuesday 參與選舉所以現在星期二

is a working day nowadays so it's really limited people's 是一個工作日所以它真的限制了人們

uh participation in the election on a particular day 在特定日期參與選舉

taiwan election they solve the problem their election always takes place on 台灣選舉他們解決了問題他們的選舉總是在

saturdays so it's day off so more and more people participate in 星期六舉行所以它是休息日所以更多和更多的人

those things in election and secondly 在選舉中參與這些事情，其次

you might say with the advent of modern communication technologies 你可能會說隨著現代通信技術的出現，

popular pollings can have tremendous impact upon how people 民意調查可以對人們的投票方式產生巨大影響，

people vote and not also subject to the nation to manipulation of statistics 而且不受國家操縱統計民意

polling methods and partisan bickerings and in taiwan for example there was a 調查方法和黨派爭吵和台灣的影響例如，有一項

law that actually prohibits those law actually prohibits 法律實際上禁止這些法律 y 禁止

publication of any polling data 10 days before the election 在選舉

day and i thought i was very good one right 日前 10 天公佈任何民意調查數據，我認為我很好，

um and i think you know um taiwanese actually um have a 嗯，我想你知道台灣人實際上有一個

much more balanced referendum system uh in other words if there's some major 更加平衡的公投制度呃換句話說，如果有一些重大

issue affecting the nation and 問題影響到國家，

you can basically conduct another round of referendum 你基本上可以進行另一輪公投

to hear the voice of the people so to speak 來聽取人民的聲音可以說

america is a federal system it's a very big 美國是一個聯邦制它是一個非常大的

so election basically is run by different states different states have 選舉基本上由不同的州進行不同的州有

different standards of conducting elections and not created 不同的標准進行選舉並沒有造成

some problems even though there's a supreme court to 一些問題即使有一個最高法院來

sort of try to unify the nation's laws but still each 試圖統一國家的法律，但每個

states each state has tremendous power 州每個州仍然擁有巨大的權力來

regulating how is they could run and the 規範他們如何運作，而且在

integrity and accuracy of the reelections vary tremendously in the 美國，重新選舉的完整性和準確性差異很大，

united states right uh depends on which party is in 呃取決於哪個政黨

power in taiwan you don't have that problem 在台灣掌權你沒有那個問題

maybe it has something to do with the size of the country 也許這與它國家的大小有關

it's small much easier to administer um uh so so i'm just giving those examples 小得多容易管理嗯嗯所以我只是舉這些例子

taiwanese democracy is very vibrant it's very thorough and but most 台灣民主非常有活力它非常徹底但最

importantly it's very fair a society without 重要的是它非常公平一個沒有

fairness is a society without justice a society 公平的社會是一個沒有正義的社會沒有正義

without justice is a society without security okay 的社會是一個沒有正義的社會安全好吧，

um let's talk about hong kong okay how do we 讓我們談談香港好吧，我們如何

revive hong kong's democracy or it's a lost case and we should just move on 重振香港的民主，否則這是一個失敗的案例，我們應該繼續前進

hong kong is a very symbolic case in promoting democracy human rights 香港是促進民主人權的一個非常具有像徵意義的案例，

the reason hong kong's different from china 香港自1997年以來與中國不同的原因

since 1997 is because there is international 是因為國際上有

understanding and the chinese communist party is a promise 共識，中國共產黨是一個

a solemn promise that hong kong will remain 承諾，鄭重承諾，香港

separate from china in its political system 在政治體制上將與中國保持分離，

hong kong will keep its 香港將保持其

freedom its law its judicial independence in other words hong kong 自由，其法律，其司法獨立，換句話說，香港

would maintain a high degree of autonomy that promise 將保持高度自治國際社會

was taken seriously by the global community 認真對待這一承諾，

china has solemnly swear they're gonna abide by its own promise 中國鄭重宣誓他們將遵守自己的舞會

that promise was broken that promise was shamelessly uh broken so 那個承諾被打破了那個承諾被無恥地打破了所以

that's why to bring back hong kong's democracy hong 這就是為什麼要帶回香港的民主

kong's freedom and basic autonomy 香港的自由和基本自治

you have to really keep hong kong separate from chinese 你必須真正讓香港與中國

communist parties model of governance that is looking really more and more 共產黨的治理模式

unlikely in light of the recent developments 分開鑑於去年最近的事態發展

in the last year also because the chinese government seems to determined ，也是因為中國政府似乎

to keep keep hong kong as if it's one of its own 決心讓香港成為自己的省份之一，

provinces that's very unfortunate so and i think you know the saddest 這是非常不幸的，我想你知道最可悲

thing is the hong kong elites much of hong kong is went along with it 的是香港的精英階層。香港也跟著

the protests are very feeble the strongest protests 去抗議很弱最強烈的抗議

uh have been brutally suppressed so there is only a um 呃被殘酷鎮壓所以只有一個

a phony mask of europe the law in hong kong because 歐洲的假面具香港的法律

the judicial system has lost its independence 因為司法系統失去了獨立性

and journalism in hong kong has lost its basic freedoms so it's a 並且香港的新聞業失去了它的基本自由，所以還有

long way to go i do not see the immediate future of 很長的路要走，我看不到讓

returning hong kong to where it was three years ago 香港回到三年前的不久的未來現在就去，

right now but that doesn't necessarily mean there's no hope 但這並不一定意味著沒有希望，

because hong kong still wants the world to believe that it is a vibrant 因為香港仍然希望世界相信它是一個充滿活力的

city it's a financial institutions continue 城市，它是一個金融機構

can continue to function as it was before 可以繼續像以前一樣運作，

even though there's a lot of doubt but the 儘管有很多疑問，但

government can can still pretend that's the case 政府仍然可以假裝是這樣，

so hypertension can be used both ways right 所以高血壓可以雙向使用，

so um i think there's a shrinking 所以我認為

leverage the world can do to bring back freedom to hong kong 世界可以做的讓香港重獲自由

but the leverage is not totally dug down yet 的槓桿正在縮小，但槓桿還沒有完全挖掘出來，但

do you think hong kong's future now is more than ever depends on china's future 你認為香港的未來現在比以往任何時候都更取決於中國的未來，

like what kind of china will get will decide 就像中國將得到什麼樣的未來將決定

what kind of hong kong not only hong kong's future depends on china's future 什麼樣的香港不僅香港的未來取決於中國的

the entire region to a larger degree the whole world 未來整個地區在更大程度上整個世界的

future it depends on china's future because 未來取決於中國的未來因為

china is a country of great significance to many our daily lives not only from 中國是一個對我們許多人的日常生活都具有重要意義的國家，不僅從

the material point of view but also from uh the point 物質的角度來看，而且從呃

of view of political philosophy from point of view what kind of life will be 政治哲學的角度來看，從現在開始的 20 30 年後，人們會過什麼樣的生活

living in 20 30 years from now

so and i think you know if the chinese communist ，我想你知道如果中國

party's model of governments prevails and then we'll all 共產黨的政府模式盛行，那麼我們

be in trouble so it's incumbent upon all of us 都會遇到麻煩，所以我們所有人都有責任

to face this challenge to guide the future direction of china to its 面對這一點引導中國未來走向

natural and i think it's a wholesome conclusion 自然的挑戰，我認為這是一個有益的結論

that's not something that we're going to do ，這不是我們

to change the regime as people always try to warn us say if we push out too 要改變政權的事情，因為人們總是試圖警告我們說，如果我們過於

hard you know change regime that basically make chinese people mad 努力，你知道改變政權這基本上讓中國人

at the united states the question actually is wrong the 對美國感到憤怒這個問題實際上是錯誤的

question right now is not whether we want to have regime change or 現在的問題不是我們是否要進行政權更迭

not the question should be asked is if the chinese current system does not 應該問的問題是中國現行製度是否會

change will the chinese communist party model 改變中國共產黨模式

of government change all of us so that's the key question so 政府改變我們所有人所以這是關鍵問題

and i think you know um we should not really assume 所以我想你知道嗯我們不應該真的假設

we have the natural capability we have the natural rights to change china but 我們有自然能力我們有改變中國的自然權利但

we have to really assume absolutely that we have the right to 我們必須真的絕對假設我們有權為

defend ourselves very strong words and that's why 自己辯護非常強烈的話這就是為什麼

mainland china is a society without fairness 中國大陸是一個沒有公平

and this is therefore is a society without justice 的社會因此這是一個沒有正義

without justice the society is not stable 沒有正義的社會社會不穩定

it looks stable but anytime the chinese society can erupt like like a volcano 它看起來很穩定但任何時候中國社會可以像火山一樣爆發

the leaders know this that's why they were so frantic 領導人知道這一點這就是為什麼他們如此瘋狂地

controlling people throwing tremendous resources 控制人們投入大量

a taxpayer's expense to controlling the very people 資源納稅人的費用來控制

that are supporting and feeding the government yeah i 支持和養活政府的人是的我

strongly echo your point i think in china 強烈贊同你的觀點我認為在中國

the miracle i mean the interesting thing about china is 我的意思是奇蹟關於中國的有趣的事情是

prosperity and demise can coexist all the time 繁榮和消亡可以一直共存，

like you can have both you you can you can 就像你可以同時擁有你也可以你可以

prosperity but one thing change and you can have the total demise 繁榮但是有一件事改變了你可以完全

well you see uh that's all boils down to governance if the governance model is 滅亡你看呃這一切都歸結為治理，如果治理模式很

lousy the government is not stable people always have this erroneous 糟糕政府不穩定人們總是有一個錯誤的

notion that somehow if chinese people are better off economically 觀念不知何故，如果中國越富有的人在經濟

the richer therefore the government would be 上越富裕，因此政府會

more stable the ccp will be there forever 更穩定中共將永遠存在

that's wrong because the opposite is true if people are 那是錯誤的因為恰恰相反如果人們

richer they have more property when they have more property they need 更富有他們擁有更多財產當他們擁有更多財產時他們

the constitutional law to guarantee their property the rights 需要憲法來保障他們的財產權利，

if they don't have property rights protection 如果他們沒有財產權保護

and then they are not very happy and you know all major revolutions uh ，那麼他們就不會很開心，你知道所有重大革命呃

were led by the property class middle class the 都是由財產階級中產階級

french revolution were led by the third estate the people who get enriched but 領導的法國革命是由第三階層領導的人獲得了富足但

without political power without social justice right you can say 沒有政治沒有社會正義權利的權力你可以說

you know the american civil rights and american 你知道美國的民權和美國

revolution all led by people who want to preserve the property rights 革命都是由想要維護財產權的人領導的

china does not property rights government of china has enormous power 中國沒有財產權中國政府擁有巨大的權力

it doesn't respect property rights the government can do 它不尊重政府可以做的財產權

can take your property away you can become rich 可以拿走你的財產你可以變得富有，

but government can take your wealth away yeah look at what happened to my um what 但政府可以拿走你的財富是的，看看我的嗯

what happened to those billionaires let alone to ordinary powerless people 發生了什麼事那些億萬富翁發生了什麼事，更不用說普通的無能為力的人了

so that's why a lot of people in china uh when they're getting rich 所以這就是為什麼很多中國人呃當他們變得富有時，

the first thing they think of is taking their their worth out of china 他們首先想到的就是把他們的身價帶出中國

to go somewhere else where their property can be protected their assets 去某個地方否則，他們的財產可以得到保護，他們的資產

can be protected and of course chinese government 可以得到保護，當然中國政府

restricts a free flow of currency so 限制貨幣的自由流動，

in other words china is a very controlled society 所以換句話說，中國是一個非常受控制的社會，

a controlled society cannot have longevity 一個受控制的社會不可能長壽

that's true last question what would a u.s china relationship look like ，這是真正的最後一個問題，美中關係會是什麼樣子就像

without the chinese communist party i hope the chinese country will still 沒有中國共產黨一樣，我希望中國

continue to exist but as one of the multi-party society 仍然存在，但作為美國的多黨社會

in the united states we have a communist party 之一，我們在俄羅斯有一個共產黨

in the in russia you they still have the party ，他們

communist party in many western countries they have political public 在許多西方國家仍然有共產黨他們也有政治公共

communist party too but they all function within the 共產黨，但他們都在

multi-party democratic system they don't have a party monopoly right 多黨民主制度內運作，他們沒有政黨壟斷權

so um in the future 所以嗯，

i hope the chinese people will make right decision 我希望中國人民做出正確的決定

to make china a diverse democratic system where all kinds of ，讓中國成為一個多元化的民主制度，各種

political interests come from their own parties all kind of 政治利益都來自他們自己的政黨，各種

political opinions can be freely expressed without fear without 政治觀點都可以自由表達，無所畏懼

being afraid of being persecuted by a powerful ，不怕被人受到一個強大的

unhinged state so i think by then 精神錯亂的國家的迫害所以我認為到那時，

uh the chinese people have will have a bright future 呃中國人會有一個光明的未來

and uh american people have always had a tremendous good wishes ，呃美國人民一直有一個巨大的美好願望

uh for the chinese people to succeed um if you look at the modern chinese ，如果你看看中國

history i think the united states is among the 現代史，我認為中國人會成功美國是

most benign foreign powers to preserve china's um uh uh national interest right 維護中國的最仁慈的外國列強之一呃呃國家利益對

uh we did it not only during world war one we also 呃我們不僅在第一次世界大戰期間我們

did it in say um in washington conference in 1920s we 還在1920年代華盛頓會議上說我們

prevented western powers from dismembering china 阻止西方列強肢解中國

and i think during world war ii we forged a genuine alliance 和我這樣做了想想在二戰期間我們結成了真正的聯盟

and america and china we both talked about ，美國和中國我們都討論過

how to preserve four freedoms you know freedom of worship freedom from want 如何維護四項自由，你知道的宗教自由信仰自由

freedom of religion and many other things that

president roosevelt and the generation of junk share and 羅斯福總統和垃圾一代分享的許多其他事情，

they exchanged a lot of ideas in those days 他們在那些日子裡交換了很多想法

and of course after chinese companies take over ，當然在中國公司接手之後

and china basically you know become very hostile to the united states ，中國基本上你知道變得非常敵對美國

and even though richard nixon went to china opened up china to the rest of the ，儘管理查德尼克松去了中國向世界其他地方開放了中國，

world but this relationship is based around a 但這種關係是基於我們之前談到的

lot of illusions which we talked about earlier so i think you 許多幻想，所以我想你

know right now um until china becomes democratic 現在知道了，直到中國變得民主，

until chinese people have freedom the world would not be safe 直到中國人民擁有自由世界不會是安全的

and because a marxist then is the party in charge of a huge ，因為馬克思主義者然後是一個大國的政黨，

nation taking advantage of free market system 利用全球貿易的自由市場體係

of global trade poses the imminent danger to us all 對我們所有人構成迫在眉睫的危險，

so if china becomes a free country the united states won't care if china 所以如果中國成為一個自由國家，美國不會關心

you know becomes so technological a technological 你知道的中國是否變得如此科技化技術

or economic advance maybe even surpass 或經濟進步甚至可能超過

america and becomes the world superpower no i mean america is always optimistic 美國並成為世界超級大國不我的意思是美國總是樂觀

you know self-confident country i mean i think you know 你知道自信的國家我的意思是我想你知道

if all people follow the same rule if all people play uh you know play the 如果所有人都遵循相同的規則如果所有人都玩呃你知道按照相同的規則玩

same game following the same rule 同樣的遊戲

and we can compete with each other fairly squarely and america is not 我們可以公平地相互競爭美國不

afraid of anybody right so uh and i think you know 害怕任何人，所以呃，我想你知道

we have this this self-confidence and this is basically a successful story 我們有這種自信，這基本上是

of the united states when the united states started in 1776 美國在 1776 年成立時的成功故事，

he has 4 million people from 13 colonies over the years has grown tremendously 多年來他有來自 13 個殖民地的 400 萬人發展迅速，

we have the system that's so great we attracted all the talents from all over 我們擁有如此強大的系統，我們吸引了來自世界各地的所有人才

the place come to the united states to become what 來到美國，成為

we know as the american nation and that is a 我們所知道的美國國家，這是人類歷史上一個

tremendously successful story in human history so i think you know i 非常成功的故事，所以我想你知道我

hope china will have the same kind of virtues we would love 希望中國擁有我們

to have the chinese people competing freely in the 希望中國人民在

international system china will become become become strong and without fear 國際體系中自由競爭的美德，中國會變得強大而

and uh without this kind of a very limited view of the world and 無所畏懼呃，沒有這種非常有限的世界觀，

because in the information control area a lot of people 因為在信息控制領域，很多人

really do not have the whole picture so they become very xenophobic in a way 真的不了解全貌，所以他們在某種程度上變得非常仇外

and that's not really good for for everybody so i think you know ，這對每個人都不是很好，所以我認為你知道

the future of china and the future of the united states 中國的未來和美國的未來

all hinges on one thing that is freedom which actually is the ultimate message 都取決於一件事情，那就是自由，這實際上是

of president reagan under secretary pompeo in particular 裡根總統和蓬佩奧國務卿的終極信息，特別

all right sir thank you very much very strong 是好的，先生，非常感謝，非常強烈

you're welcome thank you okay uh anything else you want to add no good ，不客氣，謝謝你好吧，還有什麼你想給

luck with your trip back to california and good luck with your house hunting 你的回加利福尼亞之旅帶來好運，也祝你在這裡打獵好運

here

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